Consultancy – Forecast Accuracy Specialist, Supply Chain Management Unit (SCMU), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

The Position:

Forecast Accuracy (hereinafter FA) measures the alignment between forecasted values for sexual and reproductive health (hereinafter SRH) commodities and the actual observed consumption. Ensuring accurate forecasting is essential for maintaining sufficient quantities of commodities to meet the needs of end-users and clients. This requires country programs to prepare precise national-level forecasts for each method of SRH commodity, incorporating rigorous data collection, analysis, and forecasting techniques. Supply planning processes, including stock reviews and pipeline management, facilitate preparedness by accounting for the time lapse between commodity requests and their delivery to the last mile.

Challenges such as unreliable data and unclear assumptions in demand forecasting can lead to stockouts or the introduction of counterfeit medicines into health systems. Most United Nations Population Fund (hereinafter UNFPA)-supported countries currently rely on multi-year quantification activities, emphasizing services and consumption data over demographic data. This approach highlights the need for clarity in areas such as stock-out adjustments, reporting rates, method mix, discontinuation rates, switching assumptions, and user trends. Without addressing these gaps, forecasting efforts may fail to fully meet demand across countries.

The ultimate goal is to implement a systematic approach for establishing, tracking and reporting forecast accuracy and to enhance the ability of Ministries of Health to make informed supply chain decisions. It is anticipated that monitoring and controlling forecast error levels will help continually improve forecasting models and ultimately enhance commodity availability. 

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person’s potential is fulfilled. UNFPA’s strategic plan (2022-2025), reaffirms the relevance of the current strategic direction of UNFPA and focuses on three transformative results: to end preventable maternal deaths; end unmet need for family planning; and end gender-based violence and harmful practices. These results capture our strategic commitments on accelerating progress towards realizing the ICPD and SDGs in the Decade of Action leading up to 2030. Our strategic plan calls upon UN Member States, organizations and individuals to “build forward better”, while addressing the negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on women’s and girls’ access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights, recover lost gains and realize our goals.

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff, who embody these international norms and standards, and who will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

UNFPA is seeking candidates that transform, inspire and deliver high impact and sustained results; we need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them and who commit to deliver excellence in programme results.

Objectives: 

• To establish a structured/ systematic approach for measuring, tracking and reporting the accuracy of demand forecasts in public health supply chains
• To improve Ministries of Health’s forecasting capabilities, leading to better resource allocation and enhanced public health outcomes

Job Purpose:

The consultancy involves the following activities:

A. Conduct a situation analysis/rapid assessment:

• Review existing data sources, forecasting practices, and key performance indicators (KPIs) to document contextual factors that may influence demand planning.
• Analyze existing forecast accuracy data (if any) and provide recommendations for improving measurements.

B. Develop a comprehensive methodology for measuring, tracking and reporting forecast accuracy:

• Collaborate with UNFPA Country Office (hereinafter CO) and Supply Chain Management Unit (hereinafter SCMU) staff to define the scope of forecast accuracy tracking, including (but not limited to) types of forecasts errors and specific methods/metrics, forecast horizon and level of granularity
• Establish robust data collection and storage procedures ((identify data sources, extraction methods, storage location), ensuring data integrity and version control.
• Determine appropriate methodology for measuring forecast accuracy (e.g. MAPE, RMSE, WMAPE) and standardize definition of Forecast Accuracy Indicator for reproductive health commodities.
• Develop a comprehensive reporting framework (reporting frequency, KPIs, dashboard creation, documentation, communication).
• Outline procedures for analysis and continually improving the forecasting models improvement (performance review, bias detection, root cause analysis, feedback loop, continuous improvement).

C. Facilitate stakeholder consultations:

• Engage with the Ministry of Health, UNFPA country office, and other relevant stakeholders to gather input and ensure buy-in for the methodology and expected outputs.

D. Provide capacity building:

• Train relevant staff in the Ministry of Health and partner organizations on the application of the methodology and use of relevant tools.

E. Develop and implement a national forecasting accuracy measurement system:

• Create templates and dashboards for reporting forecast accuracy.
• Integration of the forecasting model to the existing national system, including routine supply planning reviews and updates.

F. Ensure data governance:

• Adhere to UNFPA’s data privacy policies and promote responsible data sharing practices.

Overall Methodology:

A. Desk Review:

• Examine quantification reports from the past two-three years.
• Assess the use of forecasting tools and processes in the country.
• Review of consumption reports from various logistics sources

B. Stakeholder Interviews and Focussed Group Discussions:

• Conduct interviews with stakeholders at the initial phase, as well as during the implementation phase to gather feedback to inform the system improvement.

C. Data Analysis:

• Calculate FA metrics and identify trends or anomalies in forecasting practices.

D. Validation and Reporting:

• Present findings to stakeholders for validation.
• Continuous assessment and respective improvements of FA model based on findings and/or feedback provided.
• Develop a final report detailing insights, recommendations, and the proposed roadmap.

Qualifications and Experience: 

Education: 

• An advanced degree in either Supply Chain Management, Public Health disciplines, Statistics, Data Analytics or other related fields.
• Additional qualification in health economics, policy and administration or health systems management is an asset.

Knowledge and Experience: 

• A minimum of five (5) years of relevant progressively responsible professional experience in supply chain management or related roles required.
• Proven expertise in forecasting methodologies and supply chain management in the public health sector.
• Experience in developing and implementing monitoring and evaluation frameworks.
• Familiarity with Forecasting Accuracy metrics and analytical tools is an asset.
• Professional written and spoken presentation skills, including for the development of reports, presentations, and the ability to synthesize complex documents for both technical and non-technical audiences are required.
• Strong interpersonal skills and capability to develop and maintain broad diversified partnerships are required.
• Basic knowledge of the principles and operational aspects of integrated reproductive health care in the global development and humanitarian community is an asset.
• Knowledge of UNFPA mandates, policies, and guidelines is an asset

Languages: 

• Fluency in English (required).
• Knowledge of local languages is an asset.

Place where services are to be delivered: 

• Ethiopia and Zambia
• Ethiopia will be the primary duty station

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline:

• Regular progress reporting with supervisor and team on a weekly basis (virtual or in-person) at minimum.
• Submission of quarterly interim report for feedback and approval.

Supervisory arrangements:

The consultant will work under the supervision of the Ethiopia country office Deputy Representative and collaborate closely with the team lead SHR, Ethiopia CO, Zambia CO, Regional Supply Chain Specialist and SCMU Demand and Supply Planning team.

Expected travel:

• At least two round trips to Zambia from the country of residence (if needed and according to UNFPA rules and regulations).
• In-country travels during the in-country assessment
• For these travels DSA will be covered by the organisation

Required Competencies: 

Values:

• Exemplifying integrity,
• Demonstrating commitment to UNFPA and the UN system,
• Embracing cultural diversity,
• Embracing change

Core Competencies: 

• Achieving results,
• Being accountable,
• Developing and applying professional expertise/business acumen,
• Thinking analytically and strategically,
• Working in teams/managing ourselves and our relationships,

UNFPA Work Environment:

UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender parity in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. Individuals from the LGBTQIA+ community, minority ethnic groups, indigenous populations, persons with disabilities, and other underrepresented groups are highly encouraged to apply. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of UNFPA’s workforce – click here to learn more.

Disclaimer:

Selection and appointment may be subject to background and reference checks, medical clearance, visa issuance and other administrative requirements. 

UNFPA does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in connection with the application or recruitment process and does not concern itself with information on applicants’ bank accounts. 

Applicants for positions in the international Professional and higher categories, who hold permanent resident status in a country other than their country of nationality, may be required to renounce such status upon their appointment.

Read Full Description