Consultant, Data Expert for Labor Force Forecasts, Sarajevo

Purpose of consultancy:

UNFPA Bosnia and Herzegovina, in collaboration with the UNFPA Eastern Europe and Caucasus Regional Office (EECARO), is undertaking an analysis of the impacts of demographic changes across the region. To this end, UNFPA BiH has initiated comprehensive studies including the ‘Population Situation Analysis in Bosnia and Herzegovina,’ ‘Effects of Population Changes on the Provision of Public Services in BiH,’ and ‘Survey on Youth Emigration.’ These studies aim to identify and elucidate both the causes and consequences of demographic shifts in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).
To enhance the capacity of BiH institutions at all levels to effectively address these demographic shifts, UNFPA BiH and EECARO are establishing Policy and Practice Communities (PPCs) in Banja Luka and Sarajevo. These communities gather practitioners, policymakers, service providers, and experts to explore innovative solutions that could mitigate the adverse effects of population changes.
The Sarajevo PPC, upon its formation, convened 22 school principals from the Sarajevo Canton. These educators shared their concerns regarding the need for population forecasting and labor force projections to adapt to demographic changes. They highlighted a significant rise in student numbers, primarily due to internal migration from rural to urban areas within Bosnia and Herzegovina. To manage this influx, new educational institutions are being founded in the Canton, and efforts are made to distribute the student population more evenly across existing schools.
The schools emphasized the necessity for access to localized population forecasts to anticipate the number of students for each academic year, allowing for strategic planning aligned with demographic trends. This need arises in the context of broader demographic challenges, including an aging population, an aging workforce, and the emigration of the labor force, which results in a diminishing pool of potential replacements. Addressing these issues collectively will enable the Sarajevo Canton and its educational system to enhance resilience and better prepare for the future.
For this task, UNFPA BiH envisages hiring one expert consultant to build a data collection matrix, to collect the necessary data, to compile it, analyze it, and transform into policy briefs for decision makers and experts.
These Terms of Reference define the roles and responsibilities of the Data expert.

Scope of work:

(Description of services, activities, or outputs)

The United Nations Population Fund in Bosnia and Herzegovina aims to establish a forecasting system for the education sector within Sarajevo Canton. This initiative is part of the efforts under the Sarajevo Policy and Practice Community for Demographic Resilience (Sarajevo DemRes PPC). The primary goal of this forecasting is to create simple, actionable policy documents that inform decision-makers on potential scenarios ahead, based on the 4 key variables:
– Anticipated number of pupils and students enrolled in elementary and high schools within Sarajevo Canton, broken down per:
– Expected staff turnover, specifically attributing to the retirement of educational professionals in Canton.
– Assessed the available pool of educators across various educational disciplines in Sarajevo Canton schools.
– Influx of new graduate teachers for each educational discipline.
Together, these will inform us of educational staff’s potential surplus or shortfall by considering the pupil enrollment figures, anticipated retirements, the pool of available teaching professionals currently registered with employment bureaus and the teaching professionals’ pipeline from the universities. To successfully execute the forecasting project for the education system in Sarajevo Canton, the consultant will undertake the following steps:
Inception meeting with Sarajevo Canton officials (inclusive of the Ministry of Education), UNFPA representatives, and members of the Sarajevo PPC (including school principals) to outline the consultancy’s purpose, objectives, and how each stakeholder can contribute to the process. Additionally, it will serve to communicate the benefits and the expected outcome (Forecast) of the project.
1. Formulate a preliminary approach for gathering, compiling, analyzing, and presenting data to stakeholders. This involves:
a. Utilizing publicly accessible data wherever possible and supplementing it with information directly from stakeholders (such as the Ministry and Cantonal government).
b. Simplifying the data collection process through the creation of straightforward intake forms on cloud platforms (preferably Google Forms), enabling easy data submission by respondents.
2. Present the initial methodology to the UNFPA, the Ministry, and the Cantonal Government for their review and validation.
3. Adjust the methodology based on feedback received to ensure it meets the project’s needs effectively.
4. Start gathering data, combining publicly available sources with stakeholder-provided information via uncomplicated questionnaires. Obligatory data points to be collected from:
a. Schools – numbers of students and pupils in elementary and high-schools over the past 10 years, disaggregated by:
i. sex
ii. school
iii. grade
b. Schools – numbers of current and retired teaching staff, disaggregated per:
i. school
ii. sex
iii. age
iv. profile
c. Schools – numbers of transfer students from other cantons/entities, disaggregated per:
i. school
ii. sex
iii. age
d. University – number of students disaggregated per:
i. educational profile
ii. academic level (BA, MA, PhD)
iii. all data to cover period
e. Employment bureaus – number of teachers currently unemployed and over the past 10 years, disaggregated by:
i. educational profile
ii. sex
iii. age
iv. graduate level
5. Share the collected data with the Ministry and the Canton for their verification before proceeding with analysis.
6. Analyze the validated data to create forecasts based on the identified variables.
7. Present the initial findings to stakeholders for feedback, which will be incorporated into the final report.
8. Formulate policy recommendations for decision-makers, aimed at addressing the potential challenges highlighted by the forecast, such as demographic shifts or labor market fluctuations.
a. Policy recommendations should be clear, concise and realistic, taking into account the ability of system to implement them (principle of not proposing any new mechanisms, structures, or deep and comprehensive reforms that would take years to happen);
b. We are looking to achieve the following:
i. a) Build awareness among decision makers on the near-term consequences of current courses of action, and
ii. b) Focus on pinpointing “low-hanging fruit,” which refers to adjustments that are straightforward to implement and capable of producing relatively quick results. These recommendations should leverage existing frameworks and resources to foster prompt and effective outcomes.
9. Share the comprehensive results and policy suggestions with decision-makers and the public, facilitating informed decision-making and stakeholder engagement in the implementation phase.

Duration and working schedule:

Data expert will be engaged in November-December 2024, for a total of 20 working days.

Place where services are to be delivered:

Services will be delivered in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, with no travel envisaged during the assignment.

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered (e.g. electronic, hard copy etc.):

1 Inception meeting: Introduction, outlining objectives and stakeholder contributions 0.5
2 Methodology development: Formulating approaches for data collection and analysis 5
3 Methodology presentation and validation: Presenting and refining the methodology 0.5
4 Data collection: Gathering data through designed questionnaires and public sources 5
5 Data validation: Sharing and validating collected data with the Ministry and the Canton 0.5
6 Data analysis and forecast creation: Analyzing validated data to develop forecasts 5
7 Preliminary results presentation: Sharing initial findings for feedback 0.5
8 Policy recommendations Development: Drafting actionable policy recommendations 2
9 Final presentation: Sharing results and policy recommendations with stakeholders 1
Total estimated expert days 20

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, deadline:

Consultant will be expected to provide periodic update to UNFPA (weekly level), with a final report (together with final products) by December 2024.

Supervisory arrangements:

Consultant will be supervised by UNFPA BiH Youth and Peace program analyst and UNFPA BiH Population and Development Strategies, Monitoring and Evaluation

Expected travel:

No expected travel in BiH

Required expertise, qualifications and competencies, including language requirements:

Educational Background:
Master’s Degree in Education, Demography, Statistics, Public Policy, or a related field. A PhD in these areas would be an advantage.
Work Experience:
● Minimum of 5 years of professional experience in educational planning, demographic studies, policy analysis, or a related field.
● Proven track record of conducting similar studies, including data collection, analysis, and forecasting.
● Experience in working with educational institutions, government bodies, and international organizations on policy development and implementation.
● Demonstrated ability to synthesize complex data into actionable insights and policy recommendations.
Additional Qualifications:
● Technical proficiency: Strong skills in statistical software (e.g., SPSS, R, STATA) and data analysis tools. Experience with cloud platforms (e.g., Google Forms) for data collection.
● Communication skills: Exceptional written and verbal communication abilities. Capable of preparing clear, persuasive, and concise reports and presentations.
● Stakeholder engagement: Experience in conducting meetings and workshops with a range of stakeholders, including government officials, educational leaders, and international organization representatives.
● Problem-solving skills: Ability to identify challenges and develop innovative, practical solutions.
● Adaptability: Flexibility to adjust methodologies based on feedback and evolving project needs.
Language Requirements:
Fluency in BHS and English is mandatory, both written and spoken – to facilitate stakeholder engagement and data collection, and to deliver the final report/policy proposals.

Inputs/services to be provided by UNFPA or implementing partner (e.g support services, office space, equipment), if applicable:

UNFPA BiH will provide support to the consultant when reaching out to public institutions for data collection. This will done in conjunction and with the approval of Ministry of Education of Canton Sarajevo, and the Office of the Prime Minister of Canton Sarajevo.

Other relevant information or special conditions, if any:
Where the contractor fails to deliver the required quality of products, the rate payable will be reduced. UNFPA reserves the right to assess the quality of products. Contractor has an obligation to finalise products/documents to the full UNFPA satisfaction.