RFP-RO01-003602 – What Works: Early Solutions in the Context of Cyclical Climate Change-Induced Displacement

Terms of Reference (TOR) for What Works Paper – Early Solutions in the Context of Cyclical Climate Change-Induced Displacement

Who is the Danish Refugee Council?

Founded in 1956, the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is a leading international NGO and one of the few with a specific expertise in forced displacement. Active in 40 countries with 9,000 employees and supported by 7,500 volunteers, DRC protects, advocates, and builds sustainable futures for refugees and other displacement affected people and communities. DRC works during displacement at all stages: In the acute crisis, in displacement, when settling and integrating in a new place, or upon return. DRC provides protection and life-saving humanitarian assistance; supports displaced persons in becoming self-reliant and included into hosting societies; and works with civil society and responsible authorities to promote protection of rights and peaceful coexistence.

Introduction

The Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat (ReDSS) plans to address this gap through evidence synthesis that evaluates evidence of interventions across all these fields of operation that are relevant to progressively and sustainably reducing displacement-related vulnerability among IDPs in Somalia at the onset of a climate change-induced displacement. The synthesis will yield interventions and approaches that are likely to work based on available evidence produced by humanitarian, stabilization, resilience, development, durable solutions actors, and academia as well as highlight gaps in knowledge that would require further investigation. This information will then inform the government’s agenda on solutions by proposing what interventions and approaches are most likely going to work to transition 1 million IDPs out of their displacement situation as per the new pathway solutions plan from Somalia Government.

Climate change-induced displacement is a key driver of new displacements in Somalia. Many Somali nationals are displaced each year by drought and floods. In 2023, 75 percent of the 2.9 million new displacements recorded in Somalia were displaced because of drought (18%) and floods (57%). There have been on average more than 1 million new displacements per year between 2016 and 2023. Climate change-induced displacement (floods and drought) accounted for 69 percent of these new displacements in that 8-year period.

Moreover, a trend is emerging where drought-induced displacement is often followed by flood-induced displacement. Drought-induced displacement contributed to the largest number of new displacements between 2016 and 2018. Flood-induced displacement numbers grew between 2018 and peaked in 2020 as the leading displacement driver even as drought-induced displacement numbers were decreasing. Between 2020 and 2022, drought-induced displacement was once again on the rise and contributed to the highest number of displacements in Somalia in 2022. From 2022 to 2023, the reverse occurred where flood-induced displacement overtook drought-induced displacement. Already, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has warned of a potential drought in Eastern Horn of Africa during the last quarter of 2024. Once displaced, internally displaced people (IDP) often move into one of the more than 3,000 IDP sites across Somalia mostly clustered around urban and peri-urban areas. Generally, all IDPs face displacement-related vulnerabilities in these sites but climate change-induced IDPs face higher and deeper levels of vulnerability than conflict-induced IDPs. Climate IDPs face greater poverty, experience poorer housing conditions, and have higher dependency ratios as compared to the conflict IDPs. They are also less likely to be self-reliant, especially for those residing in the Bay, Benadir, Middle Shabelle, Gedo, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions of Somalia. These climate IDPs are more likely to have lost productive assets through drought and have to shift their livelihood sources upon displacement.

A key question that perennially emerges after an emergency response to a crisis is how to link relief efforts to longer-term development efforts in a process with sufficient local ownership and leadership so that communities can withstand the next cycle of climate-related displacing events.

• Criteria – Relevance: the proposed practice addresses solutions to displacement from the onset of a flood or drought to promote self-reliance and/or resilience among displaced populations in Somalia.
• Rationale: Practices that implement interventions that promote solutions from the start in the context of climate change-induced displacement would be useful for Somalia given the cyclical nature of this kind of displacement as described in the context section of this concept note.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention promoted the self-reliance or resilience of DACs within 3 years of being displaced
2. Intervention addressed displacement from floods or drought

• Criteria – Effectiveness: the proposed practice was successful in producing the desired results that are measurable and verifiable. It must respond to identified self-reliance and resilience needs and have tangible benefits for DACs in Somalia.
• Rationale: Effectiveness is a core requirement for any good or promising practice because it provides the proof that a particular intervention will yield the necessary results that this concept note is interested in and which the audience can invest in to produce similar results in Somalia.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention measured its self-reliance or resilience effectiveness
2. Intervention effectiveness results are independently verifiable

• Criteria – Efficiency: the proposed practice produced the results with a reasonable level of resources and time.
• Rationale: Efficiency is also a core requirement for a good or promising practice. Given the limited resources and time (the flood and drought intervals are becoming shorter), a practice that can be easily implemented with available resources and in a time-efficient manner will have more utility than one that is expensive and takes time to roll out.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention measured its resource efficiency against its effectiveness
2. Intervention efficiency results are independently verifiable

• Criteria – Transferability: the proposed practice must be generalizable and applicable to other locations and conditions in Somalia or have the potential to be scaled up to a broader target population or geographic context. It must also be technically feasible – easy to learn and implement.
• Rationale: The good or promising practice identified needs to be applicable in the Somalia context. A key objective of generating good or promising practices is to support adaptation and implementation to other locations where DACs would be able to benefit from the same. Therefore, the purpose of generating these practices is not merely to publish them but to ensure that they are translated into action.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention implemented in a displacement context in Somalia
2. Intervention has practical steps to implement self-reliance/resilience action within 3 years of displacement from floods or droughts

• Criteria – Meaningful participation of communities: the proposed practice engages the local communities to understand their resilience capacity and develop a co-designed intervention that builds on the identified local resilience capacity. It supports a joint sense of ownership of decisions and actions.
• Rationale – Good or promising practice requires the meaningful involvement of communities that the practice aims to support. This is because, without their involvement, there will be no commitment from these communities, and therefore limited impact of the practice in the long-term. Meaningful participation of communities is also important in the context of resilience because these communities have their local resilience capacities that the practice ought to contribute to and not supplant.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention was informed by DAC priorities and self-reliance and resilience capacity
2. Intervention was co-designed by DACs
3. Intervention’s meaningful participation mechanism can be independently verified

• Criteria – Equity and inclusion: the proposed practice addresses the needs of underprivileged sections (marginalized clan groups, women, etc) of the population when allocating resources and identifies and reduces inequalities.
• Rationale – Addressing marginalization in Somalia is a critical success factor. Most of the IDPs displaced in Somalia come from communities that have either been historically marginalized or are a minority group in the locations where they choose to settle post-displacement with limited rights and negotiating power. Therefore, a practice that addresses this issue will have a significant impact on a larger number of IDPs in Somalia given the context as described.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention involved women, persons living with disabilities, and minority/marginalized clan groups in a co-design process
2. Intervention measured relative improvement of self-reliance/resilience of women, persons living with disabilities, and minority/marginalized clan groups compared to those not marginalized

• Criteria – Coherence: the proposed practice involves satisfactory collaboration between several stakeholders and is compatible with other interventions in the location in which it is implemented.
• Rationale – One project by itself cannot purport to produce the necessary impact that supports DACs to access early solutions in the face of cyclical displacement forces. This requires a concerted effort among different stakeholders representing the humanitarian, development, stabilization, and governance sectors among others. From a solutions from the start perspective, the linkage between relief and recovery is imperative if the solutions dividend (self-reliance and resilience of DACs) is to be protected and sustained in the long term.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention engaged with external stakeholders (e.g. government, private sector, other aid actors) to complement its action to promote greater opportunities for DAC self-reliance and resilience

• Criteria – Political commitment/governance framework: the proposed practice has the support from the relevant national and local authorities where these exist and/or supports/ is supported by a framework in which local decision-making is inclusive, transparent, and accountable.
• Rationale – Political commitments or governance frameworks are critical for the sustainability of self-reliance and resilience outcomes. Given that the projects that produce the good or promising practice are time-bound, the sustainability of their outcomes needs to be linked to either government systems that can take over (e.g. social protection systems) or governance frameworks (e.g. local water governance systems) to ensure that the resources or assets necessary to sustain self-reliance or resilience are maintained.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention engaged with government stakeholders to complement its action to promote greater opportunities for DAC self-reliance and resilience
2. Intervention produced/strengthened a government structure/institution to better respond to floods or drought

• Criteria – Sustainability: the proposed practice is implementable over a long period with the use of existing resources, adapting to social, economic, and environmental requirements of the context in which it is developed.
• Rationale – This criterion is necessary to identify a good or promising practice because the Somalia context demands it. The frequencies of drought and floods in Somalia require a practice that adopts a longer-term thought process that anticipates these future crises and incorporates them into the intervention. Economic resources are also limited relative to the needs, therefore a practice that looks at how to expand or stretch the resources that exist without putting a burden on the future ability to generate resources for self-reliance and resilience would be key. Finally, a practice that invests in promoting social capital that inform how IDPs and non-IDPs in Somalia live and interact beyond the project period will also be key to ensure to prevent secondary displacements especially those driven by marginalization and exclusion.
• Proposed Operational Indicators

1. Intervention was implemented using resources sourced in Somalia
2. Intervention relied on renewable resources to promote self-reliance/resilience that do not deplete the ability of the DAC communities and their ecological space to meet future needs

Purpose of the work

The purpose of this study is to contribute to developing a collection of good practices in early solutions to displacement that can inform the government roadmap for solutions. It will use an evidence synthesis approach to identify scalable interventions and approaches to addressing displacement-related vulnerabilities, especially at the onset of displacement.

Objectives

This study’s main objective is to support awareness and learning among government, humanitarian, stabilization, resilience, development durable solution actors on effective interventions and approaches that progressively and sustainably address displacement-related vulnerabilities for IDPs in Somalia at the onset of drought or flood-induced displacements and that give them safe, dignified, and realistic options and opportunities to find durable solutions to their displacement.

Scope of work and methodology

The study will primarily be a qualitative study that includes a desktop review augmented by relevant key informant interviews and focus group discussions. It will cover evidence of interventions and approaches that are effective in reducing displacement vulnerabilities and enhancing self-reliance and resilience among IDPs in the context of recurring crises. This evidence includes monitoring and evaluation and academic reports produced by different actors across the humanitarian, stabilization, resilience, development, and durable solutions field of operations. It will be done within 60 days between February and April 2025.

Main question: What humanitarian, stabilization, resilience, development, and durable solutions interventions effectively offer IDPs in Somalia safe, dignified, and realistic choices and opportunities to progressively and sustainably reduce displacement-related vulnerabilities and attain sustainable (re)integration in the context of recurring climate change crises?

Deliverables

The overall deliverables for this study work include:

Inception Report (with PowerPoint presentation) outlining the consultant’s understanding of the TOR, methodological approach, agreed analytical framework, and ethical considerations. The inception report will also outline the work plan and a list of individuals and/or types of organizations the consultant will be interviewing for presentation to the technical research committee.

• Based on desk review and stakeholder consultation, draft a report (30 pages maximum without annexes) including:
  • Table of contents, glossary of key terms, list of acronyms,
  • An executive summary (maximum 3 pages), introduction highlighting the objectives of the study, the rationale, methodology used, scope and limitations, theory of change
  • Outline of literature review and stakeholder consultation
  • Conclusions, and concrete recommendations based on findings – focusing on the HOW
  • Annexes including but not limited to list of key interviews, bibliography, documents reviewed
  • A short PowerPoint presentation highlighting the key questions, methodology, key findings and recommendations (15 slides maximum)
• Summary notes from of key informants’ interviews
• Learning event with key stakeholders to present key findings and develop recommendations collectively
• Final revised report and PowerPoint presentation based on inputs received from key stakeholders and the technical committee.
• Participation in report launch and uptake discussions

Management and timeframe

The consultant will report to the ReDSS Somalia Country Manager and will be guided by a technical committee composed of ReDSS members and key stakeholders. The consultancy will be conducted within a period of 60 days from the contract signage to April 2025.

Duration, timeline, and payment

The total expected duration to complete the assignment will be no more than 3 months from the time of contracting. The consultancy firm shall be paid the agreed consultancy fee upon completion of the deliverables listed above. The consultancy fee will be paid in instalments that will be detailed in the contract.

Proposed Composition of Team

The applicant is expected to demonstrate team qualification to carry out the study by providing the CVs of the team that will carry out the study.

• Senior Researchers
• Research quality control
• Others as needed for the work.

Eligibility, qualification and experience required.

ReDSS is seeking to engage a firm/team of consultants to undertake this work within a period of 60 days. Given the scope of the work, ReDSS would require a team that can produce a report on each of the barriers concurrently to ensure that the final synthesis report and the training session will be delivered within 60 days. ReDSS is looking for consultant(s) that meet the following qualifications:

• Master’s degree in international relations, political science or a related academic qualification
• Minimum 5 years’ proven experience in conducting similar analyses in East and Horn of Africa contexts and has enough knowledge of Somalia context.
• Strong knowledge of the region and the socio-economic and political dynamics affecting it; more specifically on displacement trends in Somalia and within the Horn of Africa region
• Strong analytical and writing skills with proven experience in producing high-quality research with ability to present complex information in a simple and accessible manner
• Fluency in written and spoken English

Technical supervision

The selected consultant will work under the supervision of the ReDSS Somalia unit.

Location and support

The geographical coverage of study will be Somalia Country. The Consultants will provide her/his own computer and mobile telephone and may be required to get access authorisation as needed to displacement affected persons.

Travel

Any travel required for this study will be discussed with the consultants and facilitated by DRC with prior planning or by the consultant for reimbursement after approval by DRC.

Submission process

Interested applicants who meet the required profile are invited to submit an expression of interest including:

1) Technical proposal: (not exceeding 6 pages, excluding annexes) that summarizes understanding of the TOR, methodology, and proposed budget which includes

• Understanding of the assignment.
• Proposed approach/methodology.
• Proposed workplan.
• Proposed team structure and team profiles; and
• The following annexes are required:

1. CV of participating consultant(s) with details of qualifications and experience
2. At least 2-3 redacted copies of contracts and a minimum of three (3) relevant references of three organizations that have recently contracted the applicant to carry out similar assignment within the last five years.
3. At least 2-3 copies of sample reports for similar consultancies done.
4. Valid legal documents from the country in which the consultant is registered (business license, PIN certificate, and or VAT certificate)

2) Financial proposal: with budget providing cost estimates (including both administrative and professional fees)

3) Contacts of three organizations that have recently contracted the applicant to carry out similar assignment

Please refer to the RFP Letter of Invite for more information.

Evaluation of bids

Please refer to the RFP Letter of Invite**.**

Data protection and confidentiality

While executing this assignment, the consultant and all the parties involved shall ensure effective protection of confidential and sensitive data and information in conformity with the humanitarian and protection principles and to applicable legal data protection standards[1]. All data collection and processing activities shall be executed in accordance with the following principles:

• Safeguarding individuals’ personal data is a crucial part of humanitarian mission to protect the lives, integrity and dignity of beneficiaries and participants and is fundamental in the provision of protection response and humanitarian aid.
• People-centred and inclusive: Evaluation activities will respect the interests and well-being of the population and stakeholders, in all relevant phases of the evaluation and which activities must be sensitive to age, gender, and other issues of diversity.
• Do No Harm: Evaluation activities must include a risk assessment and take steps, if necessary, to mitigate identified risks. The risk assessment must look at negative consequences that may result from data collection and subsequent actions.
• Defined purpose and proportionality: The purpose must be clearly defined and explained to the participants in the data collection process.
• Informed consent and confidentiality: Personal information may be collected only after informed consent has been provided by the individual in question and that individual must be aware of the purpose of the collection. Further, confidentiality must be clearly explained to the individual before the information may be collected. Consent must be genuine, based on the data subject’s voluntary and informed decision.
• Data protection and security: The evaluation process must adhere to international standards of data protection and data security.

Additional information

For additional information regarding these terms of reference, please send your questions to Regional Supply Chain Manager: [email protected]

Please find complete bidding documents in the following link: RFP-RO01-003602 – Early Solutions in the Context of Cyclical Climate Change-Induced Displacement